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Smart Money Analytics tracks, explains, and predicts behavior from high‑impact wallets across chains. It alerts you after a big transfer and infers intent (accumulation, distribution, arbitrage, manipulation), estimates market impact, and converts signals into actions you can test (paper) or follow with risk guards. The same features and labels power the dashboard, browser extension, and 3D graph, so insights are consistent and explainable.
How It Works
Multi‑source collection
Streams from on‑chain transactions/logs (major EVMs, Solana, others), bridges, DEXes, lending markets, and (optionally) mempools, plus CEX hot/cold flows where labeling is reliable. Historical windows provide priors; fresh ticks arrive in seconds.
Labeling & profiling
Wallets and clusters are labeled by role and demonstrated behavior—not just balance:
- Tier 1 (Institutional): market makers, VC treasuries, funds.
- Tier 2 (Smart money): consistent PnL/hit‑rate, disciplined holds.
- Tier 3 (Project insiders): team/vesting/treasury (where verifiable).
A profiler maintains realized PnL, win rate, typical hold time, venue mix, and counterparty patterns. Attribution favors conservative heuristics (we avoid over‑labeling; uncertain links stay unlabeled).
Features & models
Events become features: whale_netflow (by token/window), exchange inflow/outflow, venue rotation, depth‑at‑slippage, spread, volatility regime, bridge direction, and graph centrality. Two model families work together:
- Sequence models (transformers/temporal point processes): predict next actions/horizons from event streams.
- Graph models (GNNs): capture relations (who influences whom) and cluster dynamics.
An ensemble with calibration outputs probabilities for intents , plus a simple impact estimate (likely depth usage and short‑horizon price effect) with confidence and look‑ahead window.
Intent → action
Signals convert to recommendations with guardrails: liquidity floors, spread/impact checks, concentration caps, cool‑downs, and diversification rules. Copy‑following defaults to paper mode; live following requires explicit opt‑in and per‑position limits. Every recommendation includes “why” (features considered) and links to source transactions.
What You Use
Smart Money view
- Leaderboards: ranked wallets/clusters by realized PnL and hit‑rate, with drawdown and typical hold time.
- Strategy explorer: recurring patterns (VC unlock rotations, MM inventory cycling, farmer rotations) with examples.
- Flow monitor: net buys/sells by token/chain; exchange inflows/outflows; bridge moves; common counterparties.
- Cluster pages: roll‑ups for funds/MMs/insiders with recent actions, venues, and overlaps.
- 3D graph link: jump to clusters, trace money trails, compare two windows.
Browser extension
On a token/contract page, ask “smart‑money flows” or “who’s buying this?” and get a page‑tied card: netflow, key wallets, destinations, and an intent forecast.
Alerts & playbooks
- Pre‑accumulation (medium/high confidence): “Tier‑2 cluster building positions; depth sufficient; watch for CEX outflows → DEX buys.”
- Distribution (high confidence): “Top 10 wallets sending to CEX; consider trimming or hedging.”
- New token discovery: “Two tracked clusters initiating small buys; early pattern.”
- Rotation: “Smart‑money moving from Chain A DEX to Chain B pool; bridge + LP adds.”
Rules combine a metric, threshold, window, and cool‑down. Example: smart_net_buy_1h > $750k & depth@50bps > $5m & vol_regime != high.
Follow lists, blacklist wallets, set per‑alert liquidity floors and max exposure, choose chains/sectors, and toggle paper vs. live following.